AIG driving GM into bankruptcy

sorry for the bad pun.

continuing to prove that government intervention will only make problems worse, here's an article that explains how the 100% payment of AIG counterparties will lead directly to GM going bankrupt.

GM: Bankrupt, UNLESS....

basically, since a lot of the bond holders of GM (who have control over whether to ok a haircut or force GM into bankruptcy) also own a lot of CDS on GM (issued by AIG), it's in the bond holders' best interest for GM to go chapter 11. now, i know a get a lot of complaints (well, just one from Ivan but that's 12.5% of my regular readers) when i blame the leftist, interventionists like Geithner and Obama for making matters worse than they already were, but here seems to be a clear case example showing how the rescue of AIG resulted in the failure of GM. of course, GM would have failed earlier without government intervention. but now, the taxpayers are out of trillions AND GM is still going bankrupt AND AIG counterparties (like foreign banks) are made whole. certainly, this will result in fewer (if any) benefits to GM pensioners and a massive loss of jobs - which means a further burden on taxpaying americans. for those that disagree, please explain how the "best and brightest" that obama has supposedly brought in are actually making things better.

New York City nuclear CDS

There's a lot of confusion about what CDS is.

CDS = credit default swap which is a fancy way of saying you pay a premium and in the event of a default, you get a big check. and that is fancy way of saying you're basically buying a life insurance policy so, in the event of death you get paid.

people bought lots of CDS on Lehman Brothers. when Lehman failed, the owners of the CDS got huge checks, written by the writers of that CDS (in many cases AIG).

you can buy CDS on anything these days. one popular thing to buy is CDS on sovereign nations.

typically, CDS agreements have an annual payment schedule and are good for 5 years. In the case of the United States, the CDS trades at 100 bps, roughly meaning you would have to pay 1.00% of the insured amount each year for 5 years. if at any point during those 5 years, the US defaults on its loan obligations (ie, goes bankrupt), you would get paid the insured amount. so if you wanted $100 insurance on the US government, you would pay $1 each year for 5 years. If the US defaults during that time, you would be paid $100. approximately, this suggests that there is a 5% chance that the US defaults in the next 5 years.

in the case of Icelandic CDS, the rate is 1000 bps so you have to pay $10 each year for 5 years and if Iceland defaults, you would get $100. so the market suggests that there is a 50% chance of Iceland defaulting.

if you can buy insurance for anything and for any duration, why not buy insurance against a catastrophic event? now this is super grim, but, what do you think the CDS would trade at for protection against an atomic event happening in manhattan? ie, in the next 50 years, what is the chance that some sort of atomic detonation occurs in new york?

makes me want to move to a city that is already a wasteland, like LA.