post updatez

the day after i posted the end of newspapers, the chicago sun times media group (the tribune already filed) filed for bankruptcy. it also seems that today NY city is contemplating shutting down a number of post offices around the city.

further, i wrote about the coming gold standard a couple of weeks ago and today russia called for a partial return.

foreign policy reagan style

with the government and the country transfixed by the economic meltdown, the world is taking advantage of the very real weakness of our country to do things that would have been unheard of us during our more robust times. i am far from a reagan-phile, but you have to give the guy credit for taking down the soviets. here's how i think the gipper would have reacted to the following issues facing our country.

1. north korea is about to launch a missile - reagan decision: attempt to shoot down missile with SDI. if that didn't work, don't tell anyone.

2. russia about to plant its bombers in venezuela and cuba - reagan decision: blockade those countries. get the UN and NATO behind us on this. there is no way russia should have bombers in this hemisphere. even the lefty kennedy knew enough to do this.

3. mexico losing drug war - reagan decision: nancy reagan would have helped ronnie on this one. if we weren't stuck in iraq, it would have already been done. he would have put troops on the mexican border to stop the flow of drugs from mexico. i realize the drugs will come in from elsewhere but it will at least stop the border violence and may be even settle down mexico as a whole.

4. somali pirates running rampant - reagan decision: keeping the oceans safe off somalia is something the navy could easily do and give us pretext to keep more warships near the middle east. and it's something the whole world would appreciate(even russia would be happy with us).

5. darfur ravaged as president al-Bashir thugs around - reagan decision: send in lots of humanitarian aid. we say we are the last superpower but we do nothing for these people. it is really disgusting how little our country has done. we did more for the starving ethiopians under reagan. what's happening in darfur is even worse than the famines.

6. china is expanding its military capabilities - reagan decision: unfortunately, i think reagan would have turned this into another cold war. he would have done a show of force (see #1) and expanded our military budget. our economic dependency on china makes this thornier, but reagan showed us how to defeat the communists - bankrupt them into spending too much on their military.

there are many other foreign policy issues facing our country but these are some of the top. unfortunately, i think this is what our current administration will do on all them obama decision: rhetoric.

Russia helps Iran

by most accounts, russia budgeted their government spending by pricing oil at somewhere around $80 / barrel. with oil trading at $40, the government is in severe trouble of facing default, runaway inflation or some other similarly disastrous scenario.

the market vectors russia etf (RSX) is down from a high of nearly $60 to $10.

many of these disasters that Russia faces are cured by higher oil prices. assuming that russia is not concerned with the pain and suffering and death of other humans (outside of russia in particular) then it's in russia's best interest to see some sort of conflagration in the middle east which would bolster hard asset prices, in particular oil prices.

when Obama suggests that the russians should help the US keep Iran from attaining nuclear weapons, i think he fails to understand that (a) it's inevitable that Iran will attain nuclear capability and (b) that it's Russia's best interest for increased tensions if not all out war in the middle east.

with regard to (a), human history has shown that technology cannot be kept in the bottle forever. one need only look at the palestinians who had crude rocks during the first intifada of 1987 and now have rockets that can nearly reach Tel Aviv from Gaza. with determination and funding, everything is within reach.

regarding (b), not only is it in Russia's best interest, but also Venezuela and all other oil producing countries that would not see a supply disruption from a conflict. so far from preventing Iran, Russia is likely to help Iran.